Bookmakers don’t see March being a good month at all for Prime Minister Theresa May.
Mrs May had hoped to be leading the United Kingdom out of the European Union this month – but she has not been able to strike a deal that Members of Parliament are wiling to back.
After her previous Brexit deal was kicked out, she is now facing a second vote over her plan, which does not appear to have changed too much.
The odds on the second meaningful vote passing are long, and getting longer – currently standing at 9/2 to win but it is 1/5 that it is voted down – so that is 83% probability that Mrs May does not get her plan through.
From that Brexit would then be unlikely to happen, it remains 2/11 that the UK does not leave by March 30th – which is when the UK was due to leave the EU. It is also 2/11 that Article 50 gets extended.
Labour has thrown its support behind a second referendum, and Bookmakers are backing Remain to win second time around. As it stand Remain is 5/2 to beat Leave at 4/1, although it also odds-on that we WON’T see a second vote and that is 1/3 that we don’t.
OddsMonkey spokesman Peter Watton commented: “Everything is odds-on for Mrs May to lose, it is over 80% probability that she loses her vote, the UK doesn’t leave the EU this month and that Article 50 is extended – so she is clearly fighting against the odds at the moment.
“But lets not forget recent Political betting – Trump winning, Leave winning – we have had some huge wins against the odds and Mrs May will certainly be hoping she can pull of a few shocks this month.”
Selected Brexit odds:
Theresa May to win second meaningful vote on her Brexit plan?
Will Article 50 be extended?
Second EU Referendum Before 2020?
Result of Second EU Referendum
*Odds correct at time of publishing
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