Voting has only just begun to find out the next leader of the Labour party, but Bookmakers are convinced that Sir Keir Starmer has already won.
The Labour membership is now voting for Jeremy Corbyn’s successor, with the new leader confirmed on April 4 – but if you look at the odds, the race has already been run.
Starmer is currently rated at 1/12 which is over 92% probability, and at that stage many Bookmakers would close their market.
Rebecca Long-Bailey is now 8/1 with Lisa Nandy is 16/1, and this is a huge turnaround in a contest that had looked like being a lot closer.
Indeed, looking back at the odds – you can see from betting exchange Smarkets, which alone has traded over a quarter of a million on the Labour leadership race, that the extent to which the race has swung in Starmer’s favour.
Two months ago, just before Christmas – Long-Bailey was odds-on at 10/11 to win, over 50% probability.
And even more remarkably, at that point Starmer was the outsider at 9/1 and just a 10% chance of winning – but his popularity has surged since the Christmas.
OddsMonkey spokesman Peter Watton commented: “It is amazing to think that just a couple of months ago, Sir Keir Starmer was as long as 9/1 to win with Rebecca Long-Bailey, seen by many as the natural successor to Jeremy Corbyn – was odds-on.
“Now we look set to have the first knight of the realm heading up the Labour party as opposed to their first female leader, as had looked the most likely scenario.
“And interestingly if you think this race has not been of interest, Smarkets alone has seen over £250,000 traded, spread that across the industry and this one contest is multi-million, which shows just how popular Politics now is when it comes to betting.”
Labour Leadership Odds:
Keir Starmer 1/12
Rebecca Long Bailey 8/1
Lisa Nandy 16/1
Odds and stats accurate at time of writing
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