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Boris beware…favourites don’t do well in Tory leadership race

May 24th, 2019 Home, Media & Journalism, News & Events, Politics, Press Release

Boris Johnson is firm favourite to takeover from Theresa May as leader of the Conservative Party and become the new Prime Minister.

Mrs May has confirmed she is ending her Premiership on June 7, after which she will remain as caretaker until the new leader is elected – which is expected to be completed by mid-July.

Former foreign secretary Johnson is by far the Bookmakers favourite priced at 6/5 – which is an implied probability of 45.5%…but that may not be a good omen.

Johnson himself was favourite in 2016, when he was defeated by Theresa May, and history tells us that favourites do not win.

Alec Douglas-Home was the last Conservative leader elected by party committee, and he introduced the electoral method in 1965 which is still in use to this day, and under the current system only one favourite has ever won – Michael Howard, and he was unopposed in 2003.

Elected Conservative Party Leaders
Elections from 1965 onwards as before this leaders were elected by party committee
Year Favourite Winner
1965 Reg Maulding Edward Heath
1975 Wille Whitelaw Margaret Thatcher
1990 Michael Heseltine John Major
1997 Ken Clarke William Hague
2001 Michael Portillo Iain Duncan Smith
2003 Michael Howard Michael Howard
2005 David Davis David Cameron
2016 Boris Johnson Theresa May

OddsMonkey spokesman Peter Watton commented: “The current Conservative system has thrown up all sorts of strange results, and Boris Johnson will be only too aware of the issues that come with being favourite.

“In 2016 he was firm favourite before Theresa May emerged from the wings to beat him – so it seems if you are backing this market – you may want to look further down the market.

“One name that has come into the reckoning as an outsider is Graham Brady – the leading back-bencher and the head of the Conservative Party’s 1922 Committee – he is currently priced at 66/1, but he could be one to keep an eye having never been mentioned before.”

Selected odds on next Prime Minister:

Boris Johnson @ 6/5
Dominic Raab @ 7/2
Michael Gove @ 10/1
Jeremy Hunt @ 14/1
Andrea Leadsom @ 14/1
Rory Stewart @ 20/1
Sajid Javid @ 22/1
Penny Mordaunt @ 22/1
David Lidington @ 25/1
Jeremy Corbyn @ 33/1
Nigel Farage @ 50/1
Esther McVey @ 66/1
Graham Brady @ 66/1
Steve Baker @ 66/1
Matthew Hancock @ 66/1
Amber Rudd @ 80/1
James Cleverly @ 80/1
Jacob Rees-Mogg @ 80/1
Liz Truss @ 100/1

*Odds correct at time of writing

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Spokesman Peter Watton is available for further comment or one-on-one interviews on this subject or anything connected with a betting market – for more information please contact press@oddsmonkey.com or call 01916404262