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Wimbledon 2019: Who will win this year?

May 21st, 2019 Sports Guides

When it comes to tennis, there’s no bigger tournament than Wimbledon. Even among the Grand Slam tournaments, Wimbledon is the oldest and most prestigious of events in the tennis calendar.

As with all top-level sports competitions, many people fancy a flutter. If you’re going to back a player to win the competition, it’s worth taking the time to understand more about them, look at their form, and gain an insight into how the competition may go.

This article looks at the odds for the Men’s and Ladies’ Singles at Wimbledon and analyses past trends to see who might win. To find out more about the competition itself, why not check out our Wimbledon 2019 competition guide.

Wimbledon winners: Who has won the most titles?

Records of who has won the most Wimbledon titles generally begin at the start of the Open Era, which began in 1968 when the four Grand Slam tournaments started to allow both professionals and amateurs to compete together.

In the men’s game, Roger Federer has secured a record eight titles, while in the women’s game, Martina Navratilova has secured a record nine titles. Here’s the full breakdown:

Players Wimbledon Titles
Roger Federer 8
Pete Sampras 7
Björn Borg 5
Novak Djokovic 4
John McEnroe, Boris Becker 3

 

Players Wimbledon Titles
Martina Navratilova 9
Steffi Graf, Serena Williams 7
Venus Williams 5
Billie Jean King 4
Chris Evert 3

Is Andy Murray playing at Wimbledon 2019?

The two-time Wimbledon champion — and first Brit to win the men’s competition since Fred Perry in 1936 — looks unlikely to compete in this year’s Singles Championships. Murray underwent a potential career-ending hip operation following the Australian Open in January this year in a bid to overcome an injury which has plagued him since 2017.

At the start of the year, the former world number one revealed that he intended to retire after a final appearance at Wimbledon, but he instead decided to undergo hip resurfacing surgery. Murray says he has no pain following the surgery but thinks a return to the Men’s Singles at Wimbledon 2019 remains unlikely — although he hopes to be able to compete in the less-strenuous doubles tournament.

Who won Wimbledon in 2018?

Who won the Wimbledon Men’s Singles in 2018?

Novak Djokovic claimed the fourth Wimbledon title of his career, defeating Kevin Anderson in the final 6–2, 6–2, 7–6(7–3). Anderson was the first South African man to reach the final since Brian Norton in 1921.

Going into Wimbledon 2018, Roger Federer was the defending men’s singles champion and seeded no. 1, but he ended up losing in the quarterfinals to Kevin Anderson. Marin Čilić, a finalist in 2017 and no. 3 seed, also went out early, defeated by Guido Pella of Argentina in the second round.

Who won the Wimbledon Women’s Singles in 2018?

In the ladies’ singles, it was Germany’s Angelique Kerber who would go on to win the tournament, defeating Serena Williams in what was a rematch of the 2016 final, 6–3, 6–3. Kerber secured her third Grand Slam singles title and became the first German since Graf in 1996 to lift the trophy.

Garbiñe Muguruza was the defending champion, but was beaten in round two by Alison Van Uytvanck in what was the earliest exit of a defending champion at Wimbledon since Steffi Graf lost in the first round in 1994.

Wimbledon 2019 odds: Who will win the Men’s Singles?

Novak Djokovic 6/4
Roger Federer 7/2
Rafael Nadal 13/2
Alexander Zverev 12/1
Marin Cilic 12/1
Andy Murray 14/1

Last updated: 21/5/19

Men’s Singles: The favourite

Novak Djokovic: As it stands, the favourite to win the Men’s Singles is defending champion Novak Djokovic at 6/4. The prolific Serbian will be looking to secure yet another Wimbledon title, having already won a Grand Slam this year, beating Spaniard Rafael Nadal 6-3, 6-2, 6-3 in the Australian Open Final.

How many times has Djokovic won Wimbledon? The first ever No. 1 tennis player from Serbia, Djokovic has won Wimbledon four times: in 2011, 2014, 2015, and 2018, making him the defending champion at this year’s event.

Men’s Singles: Other players to watch

Roger Federer: One of the all-time greats, 37-year-old Roger Federer still shows no sign of slowing down. No one has won more Wimbledon titles than the Swiss star and, though he is undoubtedly in the twilight of his career, his versatile style of play makes him a threat at every level of the tournament.

How many times has Federer won Wimbledon? Federer has won a record eight Wimbledon titles, winning five consecutively between 2003 and 2007, as well as winning the 2009, 2012, and 2017 titles.

Rafael Nadal: Known as the “King of Clay”, the current world No. 2 Rafael Nadal has won 17 Grand Slam titles in his career, including a record 11 French Open titles. Though undoubtedly the best clay player of his generation, he has proven himself to be an adaptable athlete that can beat anyone on any court on the right day.

How many times has Nadal won Wimbledon? Nadal has won Wimbledon twice, the first time in 2008, beating Federer in a five-set thriller, and the second time in 2010, beating Tomas Berdych in straight sets.

Andy Murray: The most decorated British player in decades, Murray has a slew of titles under his belt, including three Grand Slam titles, two Olympic medals, the Davis Cup, and a knighthood. However, the 31-year-old has suffered from persistent injuries, even losing his spot as British number one, and it is still unknown if he will compete.

How many times has Murray won Wimbledon? Murray has won Wimbledon on two occasions, the first time in 2013, defeating Novak Djokovic in straight sets to become the first Brit to win the Men’s Final since 1936, and again in 2016, defeating Milos Raonic in straight sets.

Wimbledon 2019 Odds: Who will win the Ladies’ Singles?

Serena Williams 7/2
Petra Kvitova 6/1
Angelique Kerber 8/1
Naomi Osaka 8/1
Karolina Pliskova 12/1
Garbine Muguruza 10/1

Last updated: 21/5/19

Ladies’ Singles: The favourite

Serena Williams: When it comes to the Ladies’ Singles, Serena Williams is the current favourite at 7/2. The American legend holds more Grand Slam titles than any other active player but has not won Wimbledon since 2016 — although she did reach the final last year, losing to Angelique Kerber 6–3, 6–3.

How many times has Serena Williams won Wimbledon? Williams has won a staggering 13 Wimbledon titles, seven in the Ladies’ Singles (2002, 2003, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2015, and 2016), and six in the Ladies’ Doubles (2000, 2002, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2016).

Ladies’ Singles: Other players to watch

Petra Kvitová: The current women’s No. 3, Kvitová is the highest ranked left-handed player in the world. The Czech national hadn’t made it to a Grand Slam final for almost five years before the 2019 Australian Open, where she finished runner-up to Naomi Osaka.

How many times has Petra Kvitová won Wimbledon? Kvitová has taken the title at Wimbledon twice in her career, the first in 2011, defeating Maria Sharapova        6–3, 6–4 and again in 2014, defeating Eugenie Bouchard 6–3, 6–0.

Angelique Kerber: Former women’s No. 1 Angelique Kerber has won every Grand Slam with the exception of the French Open. Though she turned pro in 2003, it wasn’t until eight years later when she rose to prominence by reaching the 2011 US Open semi-final. 2016 was undoubtedly the best year for the German, winning the Australian and US Open and securing a silver medal at the Olympics.

How many times has Angelique Kerber won Wimbledon? Kerber made it to the Wimbledon final in 2016, ultimately losing out to Serena Williams 7–5, 6–3. She returned to the final in 2018, facing and defeating Serena Williams in straight sets.

Naomi Osaka: The youngest female player in with a chance also happens to be the current women’s No. 1, having won three titles and reaching five finals in the WTA Tour. The first Japanese player to win a Grand Slam, Osaka comes to Wimbledon on the back of winning the 2019 Australian Open and 2018 US Open, looking to secure her third consecutive Grand Slam.

How many times has Naomi Osaka won Wimbledon? Osaka has competed at Wimbledon twice before, getting knocked out in the third round in both 2017 and 2018, losing to Venus Williams and Angelique Kerber respectively.

Wimbledon winners — trends to look out for

A good way to look at who may win this year’s Wimbledon is to look at past tournaments and winners to see if any trends emerge. Of course, past events cannot be used to predict future outcomes with complete accuracy, but they may be able to give you more of an insight into how contenders have performed in the past at the tournament.

Men’s Singles: A historic look

Year Winner Country Seed Runner-Up Country Seed
2001 Goran Ivanisevic CRO US Pat Rafter AUS 3
2002 Lleyton Hewitt AUS 1 David Nalbandian ARG 28
2003 Roger Federer SUI 4 Mark Philippoussis AUS US
2004 Roger Federer SUI 1 Andy Roddick USA 2
2005 Roger Federer SUI 1 Andy Roddick USA 2
2006 Roger Federer SUI 1 Rafael Nadal ESP 2
2007 Roger Federer SUI 1 Rafael Nadal ESP 2
2008 Rafael Nadal ESP 2 Roger Federer SUI 1
2009 Roger Federer SUI 2 Andy Roddick USA 6
2010 Rafael Nadal ESP 2 Tomáš Berdych CZE 12
2011 Novak Djokovic SRB 2 Rafael Nadal ESP 1
2012 Roger Federer SUI 3 Andy Murray GBR 4
2013 Andy Murray GBR 2 Novak Djokovic SRB 1
2014 Novak Djokovic SRB 1 Roger Federer SUI 4
2015 Novak Djokovic SRB 1 Roger Federer SUI 2
2016 Andy Murray GBR 3 Milos Raonic CAN 6
2017 Roger Federer SUI 3 Marin Čilić CRO 7
2018 Novak Djokovic SRB 12 Kevin Anderson RSA 8

What trends can we see?

  • Over the last 18 years, the Men’s Singles at Wimbledon has been almost completely dominated by the top seeds, with only six titles going to players outside the top two.
  • Excluding Novak Djokovic in 2018, who had fallen down the rankings after a six-month injury break, no player outside the top four seeds has won the tournament since Goran Ivanisevic’s wildcard victory in 2001.
  • Those seeded first place don’t do much better than those in second. Since 2001, the top seed has won the title on seven occasions, while the second seed has won five.
  • Six players outside the top two ranks have won the competition in the last 18 years, but only four players outside the top two ranks have won since 2003.
  • Since 2001, both the top and second seed have failed to make the final on eight occasions, with only six finals contested by players outside the top two.
  • After long periods of dominance by Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic — with at least one of them present in every final since 2004 bar one — it is more than likely that at least one of them will make it to this year’s final.
  • In the last ten years, the winner of the Australian Open has gone on to win at Wimbledon on five occasions; the winner of the French Open has gone on to win at Wimbledon only once; and the winner of the previous years’ US Open has gone on to win at Wimbledon twice.

Men’s Finals

The above trends may help you make your decision on which player will win Wimbledon 2019, but you might also want to know more about the run of play during the final. Here’s a breakdown of some key stats for the past 10 Wimbledon finals.

Year Match Time Sets Games Points Aces Double Faults Break points Unforced Errors
2009 4h 17m 5 77 436 77 8 12 105
2010 2h 20m 3 31 171 18 13 10 53
2011 2h 28m 4 33 177 12 2 12 42
2012 3h 24m 4 41 288 29 4 19 77
2013 3h 9m 3 32 210 26 6 22 99
2014 3h 56m 5 58 366 42 8 22 80
2015 2h 20m 4 45 286 28 4 17 96
2016 2h 47m 3 36 217 40 16 17 65
2017 1h 41m 3 26 160 13 5 11 35
2018 2h 20m 3 29 386 32 8 30 113

What trends can we see?

  • On average, over the last decade, the average men’s final lasted for 2 hours 52 minutes, had 3.7 sets per match and 11 matches per set. Only two finals went the distance and saw five sets.
  • Each men’s final will see an average of 269.7 points played, which is the equivalent to 72.9 points per set, and 6.6 per game.
  • You’ll see the best service games around with an average of 31.7 aces per men’s final, that’s 8.6 unreturned serves per set and almost 1 (0.78) per game.
  • Similarly, finalists only get an average of 7.4 double faults per match, meaning there is an average of 2 double faults per set. That number drops to 5.6 per match and 1.5 per set if you take out the outliers in 2010 and 2016.
  • You can expect to see an average of 17.2 break points up for grabs in the men’s final, that’s 4.6 opportunities to break serve and gain an advantage per set.
  • There are also plenty of points up for grabs when the stakes are so high, with an average of 76.5 unforced errors per Wimbledon final, that’s 20.7 per set, or 1.875 in each game.

Ladies’ Singles: A historic look

Year Winner Country Seed Runner-Up Country Seed
2001 Venus Williams USA 2 Justine Henin BEL 8
2002 Serena Williams USA 2 Venus Williams US 1
2003 Serena Williams USA 1 Venus Williams USA 4
2004 Maria Sharapova RUS 13 Serena Williams USA 1
2005 Venus Williams USA 14 Lindsay Davenport USA 1
2006 Amélie Mauresmo FRA 1 Justine Henin BEL 3
2007 Venus Williams USA 23 Marion Bartoli FRA 18
2008 Venus Williams USA 7 Serena Williams USA 6
2009 Serena Williams USA 2 Venus Williams USA 3
2010 Serena Williams USA 1 Vera Zvonareva RUS 21
2011 Petra Kvitová CZE 8 Maria Sharapova RUS 5
2012 Serena Williams USA 6 Agnieszka Radwańska POL 3
2013 Marion Bartoli FRA 15 Sabine Lisicki GER 23
2014 Petra Kvitová CZE 6 Eugenie Bouchard CAN 13
2015 Serena Williams USA 1 Garbiñe Muguruza ESP 20
2016 Serena Williams USA 1 Angelique Kerber GER 4
2017 Garbiñe Muguruza ESP 14 Venus Williams USA 10
2018 Angelique Kerber GER 11 Serena Williams USA 25

What trends can we see?

  • Compared to the men’s game, which appears to favour the top seeds, the women’s competition is seemingly much harder to predict with many winner’s coming from outside the top two.
  • With the exception of the 2002 final between Serena and Venus Williams, the top two seed have not appeared together in the final in the last 18 years.
  • That said, a player in the top two seeds has won the title in eight competitions since 2001, but in only two competitions since 2010.
  • Over half (10) of the winners in the last eighteen years came from outside the top four, with a third (6) coming outside the top ten.
  • Despite how they are seeded, certain names continue to appear in the final again and again, indicating that names, and not seeds, may be a better indicator for the ladies’ game.
  • The likes of Serena Williams, Venus Williams, Petra Kvitova, Garbiñe Muguruza, Angelique Kerber, and Marion Bartoli have made up 19 of the last 24 finalists.
  • With all top ten seeds losing before the quarterfinals, last year’s Wimbledon was the worst overall performance of the top ten women’s seeds in the Open Era. This was also the first time in the Open Era that none of the top four women’s singles seeds reached the fourth round at Wimbledon.

Ladies’ finals

Year Match Time Sets Games Points Aces Double Faults Break points Unforced Errors
2009 1h 27m 2 21 124 14 3 7 28
2010 1h 6m 2 17 105 13 5 7 41
2011 45m 2 19 128 4 10 14 50
2012 2h 7m 3 27 179 19 9 17 62
2013 1h 15m 2 17 72 8 11 21 50
2014 55m 2 15 98 5 5 14 18
2015 1h 23m 2 20 129 15 10 18 33
2016 1h 20m 2 21 132 13 4 7 42
2017 1h 17m 2 18 117 5 7 10 56
2018 1h 5m 2 18 101 5 3 8 37

What trends can we see?

  • On average, over the last decade, the ladies’ final lasted for 1 hours 16 minutes, had 2.1 sets per match, and 9.1 games per set. In the last 10 ladies’ finals, only one match has gone to the maximum three sets, meaning 90% of the last 10 finals were won in straight sets.
  • Female players score an average of 118.5 points between them in a Wimbledon final, that’s 56.4 points per set, and 6.2 per game.
  • You’ll see an average of 10.1 aces per ladies’ Wimbledon final, that’s 4.8 unreturned serves per set and 0.52 per game.
  • Double faults are also fairly rare, with an average of 6.7 per match, meaning there is an average of 3.2 double faults per set.
  • You can expect to see an average of 12.3 break points up for grabs in the ladies’ final, which equates to 5.9 opportunities to break serve and gain an advantage per set.
  • There are also plenty of points up for grabs when the stakes are so high, with an average of 41.7 unforced errors per Wimbledon final, that’s 19.9 per set, or 2.18 in each game.

We hope you found the advice and information in this guide useful. You now know enough to make some informed guesses about what might happen in the competition, and hopefully how best to place your bets. To find out more about the competition itself and get some general betting advice for the tournament, check out our Wimbledon 2019: Everything You Need to Know guide.

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