{"id":113,"date":"2020-02-06T16:46:47","date_gmt":"2020-02-06T16:46:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/om2.philclerkin.com\/?p=113"},"modified":"2020-02-07T10:06:58","modified_gmt":"2020-02-07T10:06:58","slug":"labour-have-gone-from-being-favourites-to-win-general-election-to-only-having-a-less-than-20-chance-in-just-6-months","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.oddsmonkey.com\/blog\/home\/labour-have-gone-from-being-favourites-to-win-general-election-to-only-having-a-less-than-20-chance-in-just-6-months\/","title":{"rendered":"Labour have gone from being favourites to win General Election to only having a less than 20% chance in just 6 months!"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

It comes as little surprise to many that the Conservative Party and Boris Johnson are odds-on favourite to win the General Election next month but it may very well come as a shock to learn that just six months ago, Labour were favourites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The chances of a Conservative Party victory in the forthcoming General Election is nearing 90% \u2013 twice what it was just six months ago!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The remarkable change has taken place from the beginning of June to now. We have analysed data provided by leading betting exchange Smarkets, to show the huge turnaround.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the start of June, the Conservatives stood at a probability of 43% to win the General Election, which is just over Evens and remarkably at this time \u2013 Labour were favourites and stood at 50% probability to win at that stage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Since then, things have changed quite considerably and you can see the change that takes place, towards the ends of July \u2013 and it is easy to map out and trace the changes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Around the middle of July \u2013 it was all but confirmed that Boris Johnson would become the new leader of the Tory party, after Theresa May was successfully ousted from 10 Downing Street.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And with Johnson confirmed, Labour\u2019s chances have deteriorated and plummeted whilst the Conservative have gone the other way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You see via the data that once Mr Johnson was coming into power, money started coming in for the Conservatives and the market has been going one way ever since.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Now looking at today\u2019s trading prices \u2013 the Conservatives are at 86% probability, which is odds of 7\/50, means they are now twice as likely to win as to what they were just six months ago, which represents a huge turnaround under Johnson.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And with Labour at 17.86% that means Labour are 17\/1 just to win the most the seats on December 12, when the United Kingdom return to the polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OddsMonkey spokesman Peter Watton commented: \u201cSix months is a long time in politics, and from being favourites in June \u2013 Labour are now huge outsiders at nearly 20\/1 having been Evens in June with a 50% probability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAnd as for Boris Johnson, it seems he is firmly heading towards victory at near 90% probability \u2013 although we only need look back at Donald Trump, who defied huge odds when he won the US presidency having been 150\/1 at one point, to see anything can happen in politics.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Selected odds: <\/strong>
Next UK General Election \u2013 Overall Majority<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conservative Majority \u2013 1\/2
No Overall Majority \u2013 6\/4
Labour Majority \u2013 20\/1
Conservative Minority \u2013 13\/2
Labour \u2013 Lib Dem \u2013 SNP Coalition \u2013 14\/1
Conservative \u2013 Brexit Party Coalition \u2013 16\/1
Labour \u2013 SNP Coalition \u2013 18\/1
Labour \u2013 Lib Dem Coalition \u2013 25\/1
Conservative \u2013 Lib Dem Coalition \u2013 33\/1
Lib Dem \u2013 SNP Coalition \u2013 80\/1
Conservative \u2013 Labour Coalition \u2013 250\/1<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*Odds correct at time of writing<\/strong>

Spokesman Peter Watton is available for further comment or one-on-one interviews on this subject or anything connected with a betting market \u2013 for more information please contact press@oddsmonkey.com<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

You can also check out all our latest Press Releases <\/a> \u2013 which you are free to use<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It comes as little surprise to many that the Conservative Party and Boris Johnson are odds-on favourite to win the General Election next month but it may very well come as a shock to learn that just six months ago, Labour were favourites. The chances of a Conservative Party victory in the forthcoming General Election […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_breakdance_hide_in_design_set":false,"_breakdance_tags":""},"categories":[5046,6438,9906],"tags":[],"yst_prominent_words":[],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.oddsmonkey.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.oddsmonkey.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.oddsmonkey.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.oddsmonkey.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.oddsmonkey.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=113"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.oddsmonkey.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5919,"href":"https:\/\/www.oddsmonkey.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113\/revisions\/5919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.oddsmonkey.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=113"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.oddsmonkey.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=113"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.oddsmonkey.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=113"},{"taxonomy":"yst_prominent_words","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.oddsmonkey.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/yst_prominent_words?post=113"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}