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<\/p>\nThe Oscars for 2018 will soon be handed in Los Angeles, as awards season draws to a close \u2013 but with the last three favourites failing to win Best Film, can we pick out the winner this time around?<\/p>\n
OddsMonkey has taken a look to see if we can work out who is going to take away the big prize of Best Film.<\/p>\n
We have looked back through the last decade and see who landed the biggest movie awards pre-Oscar, and for this we are looking at the BAFTAs, the Golden Globes and both the Directors (DGA) and Producers Guilds (PGA) of America.<\/p>\n
You can see that nobody has successfully mirrored the Oscars throughout\u2026but it is the PGA who are the nearest with an 80% agreement rate with the Academy, followed by the BAFTAs and DGAs with 70% and the Golden Globes – who have only agreed with the Oscars on 40% over the last decade. Bookmakers have been able to pick the winner just 60% of the time.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Until recently the Bookmakers and punters alike had a great record \u2013 up to 2014 when 12 Years A Slave won, it was almost becoming too easy for the Bookmakers to pick the winner.<\/p>\n
However, things have changed in recent times \u2013 with the last four winners being non-favourites.<\/p>\n
Indeed, the last two years we have seen odds-on fancies Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri and La La Land – both beaten.<\/p>\n
This year it looks a fight between Netflix’s Roma and Green Book, and the two films have split the four big awards between them.\u00a0Roma was the pick of the BAFTAs and the DGA, but Green Book got the nod off the PGA and Golden Globe’s – who also honoured\u00a0Bohemian Rhapsody.<\/p>\n
So could we look to the Bookmakers in 2019? As they go with Roma…<\/p>\n
OddsMonkey spokesman Peter Watton said: \u201cFor many years the Bookies had the Oscars nailed down, landing the favourite every time \u2013 but they have not successfully predicted a winner since 12 Years A Slave.<\/p>\n
\u201cSo we have to look at Roma odds-on and seeing lots of money, whilst Green Book is clear second favourite and given recent history must be considered – of the outsiders and\u00a0Bohemian Rhapsody did enjoy success at the Golden Globes so might be a bit of a bargain at 25\/1.”<\/p>\n
We have looked back through the last decade to see how the Best Film Oscar was won\u2026<\/p>\n
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2009 – Rewarding Films from 2008<\/span> BAFTA \u2013 Slumdog Millionaire The Bookmakers said \u2013 Slumdog Millionaire 1\/8, Curious Case of Benjamin Button 13\/1<\/p>\n And the Oscar went to\u2026 Slumdog Millionaire<\/p>\n 2010<\/strong><\/span> BAFTA \u2013 The Hurt Locker The Bookmakers said \u2013 The Hurt Locker 8\/11, Avatar Evens, Up In The Air 14\/1, Inglorious Basterds 16\/1, Up 33\/1, The Blind Side 125\/1<\/p>\n And the Oscar went to\u2026The Hurt Locker<\/p>\n 2011<\/strong> BAFTA \u2013 The King\u2019s Speech The Bookmakers said \u2013 The King\u2019s Speech 1\/6, The Social Network 2\/1<\/p>\n And the Oscar went to\u2026 The King\u2019s Speech<\/p>\n 2012<\/strong> BAFTA \u2013 The Artist The Bookmakers said \u2013 The Artist 1\/12, The Descendants 10\/1, The War Horse 40\/1<\/p>\n And the Oscar went to\u2026The Artist<\/p>\n 2013<\/strong> BAFTA \u2013 Argo The Bookmakers said \u2013 Argo 2\/7, Lincoln 3\/1, Les Miserables 33\/1, The Silver Linings Playbook 33\/1, Life of Pi 50\/1<\/p>\n And the Oscar went to\u2026 Argo<\/p>\n 2014<\/strong> BAFTA \u2013 12 Years A Slave The Bookmakers said \u2013 12 Years a Slave 1\/5, Gravity 4\/1, American Hustle 12\/1, The Wolf of Wall Street 25\/1<\/p>\n And the Oscar went to\u202612 Years A Slave<\/p>\n 2015<\/strong> BAFTA \u2013 Boyhood The Bookmakers said \u2013 Boyhood 2\/5, The Imitation Game 7\/1, Grand Budapest Hotel 9\/1, Birdman 18\/1<\/p>\n And the Oscar went to\u2026Birdman<\/p>\n 2016<\/strong> BAFTA \u2013 The Revenant The Bookmakers said \u2013 The Revenant 1\/2, Spotlight 11\/4, The Big Short 6\/1<\/p>\n And the Oscar went to\u2026Spotlight<\/p>\n 2017<\/strong> BAFTA \u2013 Moonlight The Bookmakers said \u2013 La La Land 1\/10, Moonlight 4\/1, Manchester By The Sea 7\/1<\/p>\n And the Oscar went to\u2026Moonlight<\/p>\n 2018<\/strong> BAFTA \u2013 Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri And the Oscar went to\u2026Shape of Water<\/p>\n 2019 Best Picture odds: 2\/7 Roma, 9\/2 Green Book, 10\/1 The Favourite, 25\/1 BlacKkKlansman, 25\/1 Bohemian Rhapsody,33\/1 A Star is Born, 33\/1 Black Panther, 100\/1 Vice<\/p>\n BAFTA – Roma And the Oscar went to…<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>After such a close run thing the year before, things could not have been different 12-months on when Slumdog Millionaire swept the board, winning every major honour and was odds on at 1\/8 to win which is a near 90% probability \u2013 the only picture that was also getting a little mention at the time was the Curious Case of Benjamin Button, but Danny Boyle\u2019s Indian-based feel good movie was not to be denied on Oscar night.<\/p>\n
\nGolden Globe \u2013 Slumdog Millionaire
\nDGA \u2013 Slumdog Millionaire
\nPGA \u2013 Slumdog Millionaire<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>The 2010 awards were again very different, when awards season began \u2013 all the talk was about Avatar, James Cameron\u2019s epic 3D sci-fi and was the biggest grossing film of all time and all looked good as they took the Golden Globe, but then talk turned to Kathryn Bigelow\u2019s Iraqi war drama The Hurt Locker and when that took the BAFTA and the DGA and PGA gongs, by the time Oscar night came around \u2013 The Hurt Locker was firm favourite, although only just with Avatar still at Evens, but the trend continued as Bigelow\u2019s creation took the honours.<\/p>\n
\nGolden Globe \u2013 Avatar
\nDGA \u2013 The Hurt Locker
\nPGA \u2013 The Hurt Locker<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/span>This was very similar to 2010, when one film was deemed the favourite before being pipped. The Social Network was a highly popular movie all-around throughout 2010 and took the Golden Globe, and was odds-on at that point \u2013 but then came the late run from The King\u2019s Speech, and they took all the other prizes, and perhaps the nail in the coffin for Social Network was when the PGA did not even nominate, and by the time Oscars came around, The King\u2019s Speech was odds-on and it delivered.<\/p>\n
\nGolden Globe \u2013 The Social Network
\nDGA \u2013 The King\u2019s Speech
\nPGA \u2013 The King\u2019s Speech<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/span>This was similar to when Slumdog Millionaire won. The Descendants starring George Clooney was popular early on and even won the Golden Globe, but that hype did not last long as the French black and white silent movie The Artist became the buzz movie in Hollywood, and dominated thereafter, and by Oscar night was 1\/12 to win, which it did with ease. Going into the Oscars \u2013 the Artist is the shortest price for any movie to win in recent years.<\/p>\n
\nGolden Globe \u2013 The Descendants
\nDGA \u2013 The Artist
\nPGA \u2013 The Artist<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/span>This was a one movie year again with Argo, directed and starring Ben Affleck dominating \u2013 despite some other heavy hitters being in contention with the likes of Life of Pi and Lincoln also in contention \u2013 but it was the CIA-based historical drama than swept the board.<\/p>\n
\nGolden Globe \u2013 Argo
\nDGA \u2013 Argo
\nPGA \u2013 Argo<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/span>This is one of the most fascinating years in recent movie history and is very much looked back on as a vintage year in movie making. As it turned out, the brilliant 12 Years a Slave dominated, but it was very from easy going with sci-fi drama Gravity also considered a genuine contender, whilst there was also American Hustle, Captain Phillips and The Wolf of Wall Street. Indeed the DGA went with Gravity, whilst the PGA did the unprecedented thing of award joint winners in Gravity and 12 Years A Slave. The BAFTA and Golden Globe\u2019s went to 12 Years A Slave and they took the main honours too on Oscar night by which point they were odds-on.<\/p>\n
\nGolden Globe \u2013 12 Years A Slave
\nDGA \u2013 Gravity
\nPGA \u2013 Gravity & 12 Years A Slave<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/span>This year was another two-horse race. Boyhood and Birdman were by far the two leading lights. Richard Linklater\u2019s Boyhood took the Golden Globe and the BAFTA, and many thought it was on course for the Oscar, but Boyhood came from behind to capture the buzz, winning the DGA and PGA honours \u2013 but just days before the Oscars \u2013 Boyhood was odds-on with Birdman as long as 18\/1 but it caused a huge shock by taking the win also beating the fancied The Imitation Game and Grand Budapest Hotel \u2013 who both had a buzz pre-Oscar. This still ranks as one of the biggest upsets in recent history.<\/p>\n
\nGolden Globe \u2013 Boyhood
\nDGA \u2013 Birdman
\nPGA \u2013 Birdman<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/span>Birdman caused a huge shock 12-months earlier at the Oscars and the Academy members did it again for the 2015 awards with Spotlight taking the honours. There was one movie dominating awards season was Alejandro G. Insrritu\u2019s historial American drama The Revenant starring Leondaro Di Caprio, which claimed the BAFTA, Golden Globe and the DGA \u2013 indeed the other movie thought to be in contention was the Big Short \u2013 based on the collapse of the American housing market. Spotlight \u2013 a true story about child abuse in the Catholic church \u2013 was highly acclaimed and amongst the front-runners, but it was still a huge shock when it took the Oscar on the night.<\/p>\n
\nGolden Globe \u2013 The Revenant
\nDGA \u2013 The Revenant
\nPGA \u2013 The Big Short<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/span>For the third year running, the favourite did not win. Early in awards season and coming-of-age drama Moonlight was well received and took the Golden Globe and then the BAFTA. Highly acclaimed feel good musical La La Land was the name on everyone\u2019s lips, and was 1\/10 to win \u2013 90% probability, but no it was Moonlight who claimed the big award.<\/p>\n
\nGolden Globe \u2013 Moonlight
\nDGA \u2013 La La Land
\nPGA \u2013 La La Land<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/span>Onto last year, and it was another two-horse race \u2013 but once again the favourite failed.\u00a0 The BAFTA and Golden Globe gong went to Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri whilst the DGA and PGA went for Guillermo del Toro\u2019s Shape of Water and it was the sci-fi love story that won out.<\/p>\n
\nGolden Globe \u2013 Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
\nDGA \u2013 Shape of Water
\nPGA \u2013 Shape of Water<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/span>To this year and again it looks a two horse race based on the awards season so far with\u00a0\u00a0Netflix’s Roma from director with Alfonso Cuaron this short price favourite to win ahead of Green Book – the 1960’s based drama around black pianist Donald Shirley. Roma was the pick of the BAFTAs and the DGA, but Green Book got the nod off the PGA and Golden Globe’s – who also honoured\u00a0Bohemian Rhapsody.<\/p>\n
\nGolden Globe – Green Book\/Bohemian Rhapsody
\nDGA – Roma
\nPGA – Green Book<\/p>\n*Odds correct at time of publishing<\/h6>\n
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