Are Newly Promoted Teams Worth Betting On?

In recent years, the Premier League has been a huge step up for teams joining from the EFL Championship. Many teams have joined the top division and struggled to keep up with the financial power of established Premier League sides, sending them back to the second tier. However, not all of these sides go down without a fight, with plenty managing to accumulate a valiant number of points and others defying the odds.

At OddsMonkey, we’ve looked at some promoted teams in recent history, weighing up their odds against how they actually performed. We’ll also compare their odds and performances, and look at the 2026/27 promoted three and how they could beat the drop and defy expectations.

First, let’s look at how promoted teams have fared over the past 10 years in the Premier League.

In total, 14/30 teams have stayed up in their first year in the league, meaning roughly 1 in 2 teams survive in their first Premier League season. Interestingly, neither of the three promoted teams stayed up in either the 2023/24 or 2024/25 season, meaning all six promoted clubs across two seasons were relegated immediately.

What Odds Are Promoted Teams Given?

Understanding the odds teams are given is important when looking for value, and we will use the 2025/26 season to show the odds promoted teams were given that stayed up.

At the start of the season, Leeds were priced at 11/10, meaning they had a 48% chance of going down, or a 52% chance of staying up, as perceived by the bookmakers. Leeds staying up this year wasn’t a huge surprise, but Sunderland staying up was.

Sunderland were given odds of 1/3, meaning betting sites saw a 75% chance of them going down. As Sunderland did stay up, there is plenty of value here, as the Black Cats defied the odds and finished in the top half of the table.

For the one team that came up and went straight back down, Burnley were priced at 2/7 to be relegated, giving them a 77.8% implied probability.

Now, it might be easy to compare Sunderland’s 75% implied probability with the fact that 1 in 2 teams tend to go down, and believe Sunderland were a valuable bet. However, it is important to consider many factors when betting on teams that have just come up, which include:

• Championship Points Total and Position
• Number of Wins
• Goal Difference
• Manager
• Summer Transfer Spending
• Squad

For example, out of the 10 teams that went up as champions in the EFL Championship between the 2015/16 and 2024/25 seasons, 6/10 stayed up on their first attempt.

So, when you take these aspects into account, it is worth looking at the 26/27 season and seeing how valuable these teams could be when you look at relegation odds.

Which Promoted Teams Surprised The Most?

Over the past decade, promoted teams have delivered some huge surprises, defying the odds massively. Let’s look at some of these and the odds they overcame.

As we can see, these are two clear examples of teams expected to go down, but that finished in the top half of the table. Wolves also finished in Europe in 2018/19, but they were given relegation odds of 8/1 because of their summer transfer window and impressive squad, with Ruben Neves as one of the standout players.

Are the 26/27 Promoted Teams Worth Betting On?

After reviewing the implied probabilities from the last 10 years, let’s compare them with the three promoted teams this season to see whether they are seen as valuable.

*Odds from bet365 (22/09/26)

*After 5 league matches

At the moment, Coventry are seen as the most likely to go down because of their poor start to the season, while Ipswich are given the best chance to stay up of the three. Despite being highest in the table, Hull have an implied probability of 60%, meaning the odds suggest they will go down 60% of the time.

With the odds in place, all three teams are seen as favourites to go down, with Crystal Palace the closest at 2/1. However, with Hull and Ipswich starting the season well, both sides could defy the odds and offer value.

Is It Worth Betting On Newly Promoted Teams?

In short, it is worth betting on newly promoted teams as they can throw up surprises. Whether that be Sunderland at odds of 1/3, or Sheffield United in 2019/20 when they managed to finish in Europe. With 1 in 2 sides staying up in the past 10 years, going against the odds can sometimes provide value, as promoted sides tend to be unpredictable.

In the most recent season, the odds predicted Sunderland and Burnley would go down more often than not, with Leeds having half a chance, yet two sides stayed up in the end. However, this doesn’t mean 1 in 2 sides will always stay up.

For example, in 2023/24 Burnley were given odds of 9/4 to go down because of manager Vincent Kompany and their 101-point season in the Championship, yet they still went down.

In conclusion, you can find value in newly promoted teams, but it’s about finding cases where the market price differs substantially from the team’s underlying prospects. With most betting markets predicting promoted teams to be relegated, and approximately 1 in 2 newly promoted sides actually going down, these teams could be ones to target in upcoming seasons.

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