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General Election – what do the odds say?

February 6th, 2020 Home, Media & Journalism, Uncategorized

The General Election is nearly upon us, we know the odds for the whole country – but what do the local elections tell us?

OddsMonkey have looked at the ten most marginal seats across the country to see whether than can tell us anything…

Interestingly, six of the ten most marginals are predicted to swap hands by Bookmakers, with the other four holding with the current incumbent.

The Conservatives gain four, hold one but also lose one to the Liberal Democrats – who are actually predicted to do well picking up two – also landing one from the SNP.

But the Bookmakers believe the Scottish Nationalists will do well, despite having four seats in the top-ten marginals – as they are predicted to to keep three of those.

Labour don’t see any gains in the top-ten, and actually lose the three they currently hold.

1. NORTH EAST FIFE
SNP majority of 2 votes

Odds:
Liberal Democrat Evens
SNP 9/1
Conservative 50/1
Labour 50/1

Bookmakers predict:
Liberal Democrat GAIN

2. KENSINGTON
Labour majority of 20

Odds:
Conservative 4/7
Labour 13/5
Liberal Democrat 3/1
Brexit Party 100/1
Green 200/1
UKIP 500/1

Bookmakers predict:
Conservative GAIN

3. PERTH AND NORTH PERTHSHIRE
SNP majority of 21

Odds:
SNP 7/4
Conservative 40/1
Labour 50/1
Liberal Democrat 50/1

Bookmakers predict:
SNP HOLD

4. DUDLEY NORTH
Independent majority of 22

Conservative 1/14
Labour 6/1
Liberal Democrat 150/1
Green 300/1

Bookmakers predict:
Conservative GAIN

5. NEWCASTLE-UNDER-LYME
Labour majority of 30

Conservative 1/5
Labour 3/1
Brexit Party 33/1
Green 50/1
Liberal Democrat 80/1

Bookmakers predict:
Conservative GAIN

6. SOUTHAMPTON ITCHEN
Conservative majority of 31

Conservative 1/4
Labour 5/2
Liberal Democrat 50/1
Brexit Party 50/1
Green 100/1

Bookmakers predict:
Conservative HOLD

7. RICHMOND PARK
Conservative majority of 45

Liberal Democrat 1/4
Conservative 11/4
Labour 66/1

Bookmakers predict:
Liberal Democrat GAIN

8. CREWE AND NANTWICH 
Labour majority of 48

Conservative 2/7
Labour 9/4
Liberal Democrat 50/1

Bookmakers predict:
Conservative GAIN

9. GLASGOW SOUTH WEST 
SNP majority of 60

SNP 1/6
Labour 7/2
Conservative 20/1
Liberal Democrat 50/1

Bookmakers predict:
SNP HOLD

10. GLASGOW EAST
SNP majority of 75

SNP 1/8
Labour 9/2
Conservative 33/1
Liberal Democrat 66/1

Bookmakers predict:
SNP HOLD

Overall Election Odds:

Most seats in General Election
Conservatives 1/33
Labour 14/1
Liberal Democrats 300/1
Brexit Party 500/1
Green Party 500/1

Majority in General Election
Conservative Majority 1/3
No Overall Majority 11/5
Labour Majority 25/1
Liberal Democrat majority 500/1
Green Majority 500/1

OddsMonkey spokesman Peter Watton commented: “The odds have been pretty steady, confirming a Conservative win and by a majority is odds-on.

“But looking at the marginals, it is perhaps a surprise not more are changing with just 6 out of the 10 set to change hands – which confirms that maybe things will be closer than we think, however, constituency-by-constituency this election looks very hard to call.”

Odds correct at time of writing

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