What Is Expected Value In Betting?

In matched betting, there can be many different ways to form matched bets, whether this be through ‘Bet X Get X’ offers or Extra Place offers. Bettors might not know which ones to choose. This is why we can use expected value to understand which matched bets we want to use and which ones we might be fine with missing out on. Here, we will discuss what expected value is, how expected value can be calculated and the role of expected value in matched betting.

Expected Value In Betting

In betting, expected value is a tool we can use to find out how much value we can expect to see from a particular bet. It is the average outcome of a bet or event after factoring all possible outcomes and their probabilities. We can use this expected value to see if the betting selection is worth betting on and is a good investment. This tool is not only used in gambling but also in finance to assess the risks against the rewards of certain actions, making it a great tool in matched betting.

Expected value does not mean that we can find out which bets are going to win and lose, but it lets bettors evaluate if the risk is worth it when placing the bets. If bettors use this tool and find the profit is not large enough to risk, then this would be a poor expected value bet and might not be worth placing the bet on. 

A positive expected value bet means that bettors can expect to make money on this bet in the long term. A negative expected value bet means the bettor can expect to make a loss over a long period of time. As this is only expected, the negative value bets might return every once in a while, but the majority of the time, it would not be worth it.

Expected value betting can be used in all different types of sports, whether it be football, rugby, horse racing or cricket. If bettors would like to learn more about specific sports betting, check out our football betting guide and our boxing betting guide.

How To Calculate Expected Value In Betting 

To calculate the expected value, bettors can multiply each possible outcome of an event by its probability of occurring and then add up the results. This will give bettors an average outcome that they can expect if they repeat that event many times. 

Now, this can be quite confusing if the odds of the event happening are large or complicated. In typical OddsMonkey fashion, we have an expected value calculator in which bettors can simply enter the bet details to calculate the expected value of the bet.

Bettors can use this tool to determine whether certain casino offers and promotions are worth participating in. Thus, users can see if the promotion is worth it before opting in.

How Expected Value Links To Matched Betting

In terms of most matched betting options, users are advised to make the most of all offers they see as most are no risk. When bettors are able to place a back bet and a lay bet on the same sporting event, this means that no matter what the outcome is, the bettor will be able to make a return, making it essential for users to take part in these offers. If you are looking to learn more about matched betting, check out our matched betting blog. In these types of matched bet opportunities, most bettors will not use the expected value in these bets.

However, for more advanced matched betting opportunities such as extra place offers, bettors are not able to lock in a profit with these offers and, therefore, need to rely on expected value in order to see if the bet is worthwhile or not. This is one of the many value betting techniques that we recommend bettors take part in, as looking for value is always better than placing bets randomly.

Using different offers with matched betting techniques over a long period of time will result in an upward trend of profit overall when using the expected value. Whilst there can be some dips in the trend due to these offers not being guaranteed profit, it is important to ensure your bankroll can afford this strategy before starting to ensure if losses are made, they do not stop the entire process.

Plenty of matched betting strategies, such as sign-up offers and promotions, will have a positive expected value, whereas placing bets without a strategy will have a negative expected value. 

If users are looking to learn more about different sign up offers, strategies and matched betting techniques, then OddsMonkey is the place to be.