When it comes to placing bets on football games and events, many bettors might opt to place bets on teams they support or personal favourite players. However, there is a separate art when it comes to betting, which can increase bettors’ chances of making a return over the long term. This art is spotting bets that offer better odds than they should, playing smart rather than just following the crowd, which is also known as value betting. Here at OddsMonkey, we will look through what value betting is in football, how you can identify these different value bets, different strategies you can use, and how this is different from matched betting.
Value Betting In Football
The basics of value betting are finding a betting opportunity where the potential rewards outweigh the risk involved, meaning the bet must have decent odds and be fairly likely to come true. This approach is not about making a quick win, but it is about making informed decisions that will pay off in the long run. As these bets are not guaranteed to return a payout like in matched betting, they will not always pay off and are able to lose, yet continuously betting on value bets compared to random bets will give bettors a better opportunity to create returns over a long period of time.
Whilst value betting is not limited to football, football betting is one of the most popular markets as it is one of the biggest sports on the planet. Knowing how to identify these bets means bettors can increase their chance of sustained success and possibly gain an edge over bookmakers. Users who are well-informed about different teams’ playing styles, players’ tendencies, and fixture history might have the edge when it comes to finding value bets.
How To Identify Football Value Bets
In the world of football betting, a value bet occurs when the odds on a game’s outcome reflect a probability that’s lower than the actual likelihood of that event happening. This basically means that you have found a selection which is more likely to succeed than the bookmakers might think. With bookmakers constantly changing and developing, make sure to keep up to date with our ‘What is a bookmaker’ guide.
With football having plenty of different betting options, it might seem quite difficult to find value bets which are worth placing. However, we can use implied probability to work out which bets would give the best value.
To work out implied probability, we can divide the value of 1 by the decimal odds to work out how likely the bookmaker believes that the selection will come in. For example, if a bookmaker offers the odds of 4/1, which would be 5 in decimal odds, then the bookmaker believes that the selection has a 20% chance of happening. However, if the player can judge that the selection actually has a better chance in comparison to the bookmaker’s odds, then this would make it a value bet.
The importance of finding and using these bets lies in their potential for long-term profitability. Not every bet will be successful, as this is a sport, and anything can happen. It is also important to note that this betting strategy is possible not only in football but many other types of sports. Our boxing betting guide and horse racing betting guide are great places to learn more about different types of sports betting, with OddsMonkey being the home to plenty of sports guides.
Different Value Betting Strategies In Football
One of the best strategies to use when trying to find and use value bets is to use a methodical approach. Bettors should first begin by gathering extensive knowledge about the sport, with information such as form, head-to-head statistics, injuries and suspensions, and player tendencies being hugely important factors in value betting. For example, if you know that a certain player scores plenty of headers, then it could be useful to look at how likely it is for that player to have shots on target with their head and how bad the other team are at defending set pieces and the height of their defence. Using in-depth research is incredibly important when football betting.
Two other great tips can be used in all different forms of betting, which is to maintain a record of all wagers they have placed, allowing them to keep track of different value bets and how likely they were to happen. This allows bettors to review decisions and refine their strategy over time based on actual results. The other strategy is to remain patient when trying to find these bets. The value betting strategy does not work if you rush into several bets every match day; waiting for opportunities is absolutely essential.
Value Betting Compared To Matched Betting
As it has been previously mentioned, it is possible for these value betting strategies to be unsuccessful as these are not guaranteed. This is completely different from matched betting, which can lock in results when the correct mathematics is used. This means that using different tools and strategies to ensure the best value bets is essential to making the most of this exciting and interesting betting strategy! For bettors who are looking to find out more about matched betting, check out our extensive matched betting blog!
