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Oscars 2019 – will Roma buck the losing favourite trend?

February 19th, 2019 Home, News & Events, Press Release, Showbiz

The Oscars for 2018 will soon be handed in Los Angeles, as awards season draws to a close – but with the last three favourites failing to win Best Film, can we pick out the winner this time around?

OddsMonkey has taken a look to see if we can work out who is going to take away the big prize of Best Film.

We have looked back through the last decade and see who landed the biggest movie awards pre-Oscar, and for this we are looking at the BAFTAs, the Golden Globes and both the Directors (DGA) and Producers Guilds (PGA) of America.

You can see that nobody has successfully mirrored the Oscars throughout…but it is the PGA who are the nearest with an 80% agreement rate with the Academy, followed by the BAFTAs and DGAs with 70% and the Golden Globes – who have only agreed with the Oscars on 40% over the last decade. Bookmakers have been able to pick the winner just 60% of the time.

Until recently the Bookmakers and punters alike had a great record – up to 2014 when 12 Years A Slave won, it was almost becoming too easy for the Bookmakers to pick the winner.

However, things have changed in recent times – with the last four winners being non-favourites.

Indeed, the last two years we have seen odds-on fancies Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri and La La Land – both beaten.

This year it looks a fight between Netflix’s Roma and Green Book, and the two films have split the four big awards between them. Roma was the pick of the BAFTAs and the DGA, but Green Book got the nod off the PGA and Golden Globe’s – who also honoured Bohemian Rhapsody.

So could we look to the Bookmakers in 2019? As they go with Roma…

OddsMonkey spokesman Peter Watton said: “For many years the Bookies had the Oscars nailed down, landing the favourite every time – but they have not successfully predicted a winner since 12 Years A Slave.

“So we have to look at Roma odds-on and seeing lots of money, whilst Green Book is clear second favourite and given recent history must be considered – of the outsiders and Bohemian Rhapsody did enjoy success at the Golden Globes so might be a bit of a bargain at 25/1.”

We have looked back through the last decade to see how the Best Film Oscar was won…

2009 – Rewarding Films from 2008
After such a close run thing the year before, things could not have been different 12-months on when Slumdog Millionaire swept the board, winning every major honour and was odds on at 1/8 to win which is a near 90% probability – the only picture that was also getting a little mention at the time was the Curious Case of Benjamin Button, but Danny Boyle’s Indian-based feel good movie was not to be denied on Oscar night.

BAFTA – Slumdog Millionaire
Golden Globe – Slumdog Millionaire
DGA – Slumdog Millionaire
PGA – Slumdog Millionaire

The Bookmakers said – Slumdog Millionaire 1/8, Curious Case of Benjamin Button 13/1

And the Oscar went to… Slumdog Millionaire

2010
The 2010 awards were again very different, when awards season began – all the talk was about Avatar, James Cameron’s epic 3D sci-fi and was the biggest grossing film of all time and all looked good as they took the Golden Globe, but then talk turned to Kathryn Bigelow’s Iraqi war drama The Hurt Locker and when that took the BAFTA and the DGA and PGA gongs, by the time Oscar night came around – The Hurt Locker was firm favourite, although only just with Avatar still at Evens, but the trend continued as Bigelow’s creation took the honours.

BAFTA – The Hurt Locker
Golden Globe – Avatar
DGA – The Hurt Locker
PGA – The Hurt Locker

The Bookmakers said – The Hurt Locker 8/11, Avatar Evens, Up In The Air 14/1, Inglorious Basterds 16/1, Up 33/1, The Blind Side 125/1

And the Oscar went to…The Hurt Locker

2011
This was very similar to 2010, when one film was deemed the favourite before being pipped. The Social Network was a highly popular movie all-around throughout 2010 and took the Golden Globe, and was odds-on at that point – but then came the late run from The King’s Speech, and they took all the other prizes, and perhaps the nail in the coffin for Social Network was when the PGA did not even nominate, and by the time Oscars came around, The King’s Speech was odds-on and it delivered.

BAFTA – The King’s Speech
Golden Globe – The Social Network
DGA – The King’s Speech
PGA – The King’s Speech

The Bookmakers said – The King’s Speech 1/6, The Social Network 2/1

And the Oscar went to… The King’s Speech

2012
This was similar to when Slumdog Millionaire won. The Descendants starring George Clooney was popular early on and even won the Golden Globe, but that hype did not last long as the French black and white silent movie The Artist became the buzz movie in Hollywood, and dominated thereafter, and by Oscar night was 1/12 to win, which it did with ease. Going into the Oscars – the Artist is the shortest price for any movie to win in recent years.

BAFTA – The Artist
Golden Globe – The Descendants
DGA – The Artist
PGA – The Artist

The Bookmakers said – The Artist 1/12, The Descendants 10/1, The War Horse 40/1

And the Oscar went to…The Artist

2013
This was a one movie year again with Argo, directed and starring Ben Affleck dominating – despite some other heavy hitters being in contention with the likes of Life of Pi and Lincoln also in contention – but it was the CIA-based historical drama than swept the board.

BAFTA – Argo
Golden Globe – Argo
DGA – Argo
PGA – Argo

The Bookmakers said – Argo 2/7, Lincoln 3/1, Les Miserables 33/1, The Silver Linings Playbook 33/1, Life of Pi 50/1

And the Oscar went to… Argo

2014
This is one of the most fascinating years in recent movie history and is very much looked back on as a vintage year in movie making. As it turned out, the brilliant 12 Years a Slave dominated, but it was very from easy going with sci-fi drama Gravity also considered a genuine contender, whilst there was also American Hustle, Captain Phillips and The Wolf of Wall Street. Indeed the DGA went with Gravity, whilst the PGA did the unprecedented thing of award joint winners in Gravity and 12 Years A Slave. The BAFTA and Golden Globe’s went to 12 Years A Slave and they took the main honours too on Oscar night by which point they were odds-on.

BAFTA – 12 Years A Slave
Golden Globe – 12 Years A Slave
DGA – Gravity
PGA – Gravity & 12 Years A Slave

The Bookmakers said – 12 Years a Slave 1/5, Gravity 4/1, American Hustle 12/1, The Wolf of Wall Street 25/1

And the Oscar went to…12 Years A Slave

2015
This year was another two-horse race. Boyhood and Birdman were by far the two leading lights. Richard Linklater’s Boyhood took the Golden Globe and the BAFTA, and many thought it was on course for the Oscar, but Boyhood came from behind to capture the buzz, winning the DGA and PGA honours – but just days before the Oscars – Boyhood was odds-on with Birdman as long as 18/1 but it caused a huge shock by taking the win also beating the fancied The Imitation Game and Grand Budapest Hotel – who both had a buzz pre-Oscar. This still ranks as one of the biggest upsets in recent history.

BAFTA – Boyhood
Golden Globe – Boyhood
DGA – Birdman
PGA – Birdman

The Bookmakers said – Boyhood 2/5, The Imitation Game 7/1, Grand Budapest Hotel 9/1, Birdman 18/1

And the Oscar went to…Birdman

2016
Birdman caused a huge shock 12-months earlier at the Oscars and the Academy members did it again for the 2015 awards with Spotlight taking the honours. There was one movie dominating awards season was Alejandro G. Insrritu’s historial American drama The Revenant starring Leondaro Di Caprio, which claimed the BAFTA, Golden Globe and the DGA – indeed the other movie thought to be in contention was the Big Short – based on the collapse of the American housing market. Spotlight – a true story about child abuse in the Catholic church – was highly acclaimed and amongst the front-runners, but it was still a huge shock when it took the Oscar on the night.

BAFTA – The Revenant
Golden Globe – The Revenant
DGA – The Revenant
PGA – The Big Short

The Bookmakers said – The Revenant 1/2, Spotlight 11/4, The Big Short 6/1

And the Oscar went to…Spotlight

2017
For the third year running, the favourite did not win. Early in awards season and coming-of-age drama Moonlight was well received and took the Golden Globe and then the BAFTA. Highly acclaimed feel good musical La La Land was the name on everyone’s lips, and was 1/10 to win – 90% probability, but no it was Moonlight who claimed the big award.

BAFTA – Moonlight
Golden Globe – Moonlight
DGA – La La Land
PGA – La La Land

The Bookmakers said – La La Land 1/10, Moonlight 4/1, Manchester By The Sea 7/1

And the Oscar went to…Moonlight

2018
Onto last year, and it was another two-horse race – but once again the favourite failed.  The BAFTA and Golden Globe gong went to Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri whilst the DGA and PGA went for Guillermo del Toro’s Shape of Water and it was the sci-fi love story that won out.

BAFTA – Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
Golden Globe – Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
DGA – Shape of Water
PGA – Shape of Water

And the Oscar went to…Shape of Water

2019
To this year and again it looks a two horse race based on the awards season so far with  Netflix’s Roma from director with Alfonso Cuaron this short price favourite to win ahead of Green Book – the 1960’s based drama around black pianist Donald Shirley. Roma was the pick of the BAFTAs and the DGA, but Green Book got the nod off the PGA and Golden Globe’s – who also honoured Bohemian Rhapsody.

Best Picture odds: 2/7 Roma, 9/2 Green Book, 10/1 The Favourite, 25/1 BlacKkKlansman, 25/1 Bohemian Rhapsody,33/1 A Star is Born, 33/1 Black Panther, 100/1 Vice

BAFTA – Roma
Golden Globe – Green Book/Bohemian Rhapsody
DGA – Roma
PGA – Green Book

And the Oscar went to…

*Odds correct at time of publishing

Spokesman Peter Watton is available for further comment or one-on-one interviews on this subject or anything connected with a betting market – for more information please contact press@oddsmonkey.com or call 01916404262