Matched betting maths formulas

To be successful at matched betting, you either need to know your maths formulas, or use software like OddsMatcher that makes those calculations for you. If you want to work out your odds, profit and optimum stake yourself, below are the matched betting formulas you need. You can also let our matched betting calculator do some of the hard sums for you.

We also have a free matched betting spreadsheet, although it’s much easier to use our Profit Tracker tool!

Qualifying bet and welcome bet formulas

  1. a) Profit if back bet wins:
    Profit = back stake * (back bet odds – 1) – lay stake * (lay bet odds – 1)
  2. b) Profit if lay bet wins:
    Profit = lay stake * (1 – commission) – back stake
  3. c) To work out the ideal stake for even profit, no matter what the result:
    Lay stake = back odds * back stake / (lay odds – commission)
  4. d) Final profit for the qualifying bet and welcome bet stage:
    Final profit = lay stake * (1 – commission) – back stake

Free bet – stake NOT returned (SNR) formulas

  1. a) Profit if the free bet SNR wins:
    Profit = (back odds – 1) * free bet size – (lay odds – 1) * lay stake
  2. b) Profit if the lay bet wins:
    Profit = lay stake * (1 – commission)
  3. c) To work out the ideal lay stake for the same profit, no matter what the result:
    Lay stake for an even profit = (back odds – 1) / (lay odds – commission) * free bet size
  4. d) Final profit for the free bet (SNR) stage:
    Final profit = lay stake * (1 – commission)

Free bet – stake returned (SR) formulas

  1. a) Profit if free bet wins:
    Profit = free bet value * back odds – lay stake * (lay odds – 1)
  2. b) Profit if lay bet wins:
    Profit = (1 – commission) * lay stake
  3. c) To work out the ideal lay stake for even profit, no matter what the result:
    Lay stake for an even profit = (back odds * free bet value) / (lay odds – commission)
  4. d) Final profit for the free bet (SR) stage:
    Final profit = (1 – commission) * lay stake

While this article includes all the matched betting maths formulas you need to work everything out without any outside help, software like OddsMatcher ensures you don’t have to worry about making complex calculations. We also have a matched betting forum, where you can go to ask for advice from other members and swap your success stories.