Why Does Risk-Free Bet Show a Loss In Profit Tracker

When placing a risk-free bet, by following the strategy you have been recommended and filling in all the necessary details, the calculator can show that you are expecting an equal profit no matter the outcome. However, if using a profit tracker simultaneously, this will show it as a loss! Whilst this can be confusing, we will go through why the profit tracker does this and if the profit tracker affects how you should be matched betting. Here at OddsMonkey, we will explain in more depth why this is going on and why you should always settle your profit tracker bets in cases where there are possible differences in the actual profit outcome. 

Why Does This Happen?

In short, this occurs because the profit tracker will always show the user the worst possible outcome; it is only when the bet is actually settled that you will be able to see the genuine outcome. This can be quite concerning to see, considering matched betting is meant to have all your bases covered, meaning you are not supposed to have any losses.

When matched betting using a risk-free offer, players can use these to lock in a profit. An example could be an offer which gives a £40 bonus with rollover requirements. By using matched betting, a player can expect to gain a profit of £27.20 if done correctly using all the matched betting guides we have on offer.  However, in this example, the profit tracker showcases a loss of -£6.79! 

The reason for this is that the first bet that you have placed on this offer does actually have 2 different outcomes depending on what happens. You are either going to have the instant profit, which is £27.20 if the back bet wins with no bonus to come in, or you will have the bet lose £6.79 and then have the bonus to cover the difference. This basically means that the profit tracker does not know the bonus that you have played for. Therefore, it is not taken into account when the bets are being placed into the tracker. 

How Does This Affect The Profit Tracker? 

If the profit is made instantly from winning the back bet, then it is simple enough to settle the bet by clicking the settle bet button. This means the profit tracker will correctly record the actual instant profit, which means the Profit Tracker would be correct. 

If, however, the back bet does lose, you should settle the bet the other way for the loss of £6.79; the profit tracker makes this outcome from these calculations:

Bookmaker = Lose £40

Exchange = Win £33.21

Overall = -£6.79

This is what the profit tracker has recorded so far. Since the bet comes with an offer bonus of £40, you or the tracker do not know how much you are going to be able to retain. It is estimated at about £34 at the outset, being an 85% retention rate of the £40 bonus, which was part of the original calculation. The £27.20 expected profit comes from the retention of £34 from the bonus, minus the £6.79 qualifying loss, meaning overall profit is still achieved. 

Now, it is important to either manually adjust the full value of the cash bonus (£40) or do nothing in case of a free bet, as the next bet you log into the Profit Tracker to complete the offer will take care of the rest.  Whenever you are using matched betting though, make sure to always use a matched betting calculator, as this strategy only works if all the maths adds up.

Rollover And Free Bet Rewards 

In case of a rollover bet, you do not know how many more bets you will have. Therefore, you do not know the number of qualifying losses that you are going to incur. This means your net expected profit will be too high as £40 – £6.79 = £33.21 and not the expected £27.20. You should now proceed to make your next follow-up bets in qualifying bet mode and log them along with their qualifying losses in your profit tracker. Once the total qualifying losses are known from these bets, this is when you will know exactly how much you made from the offer; the profit tracker will have accurately tracked the net overall position in the process too! 

For free bets, in the case that a bonus or promotion has been awarded, you do not do anything except log your free bet in your Profit Tracker like you normally would. For other tips and tricks when it comes to matched betting, make sure to check out our other guides, such as our accumulator offers guide or our insight to enhanced odds offers as both of these could potentially tie into risk free bets as well.