In the market of sports betting, the idea of positive expected value is incredibly important and essential for bettors to make a profit over a long period. With links to value betting, positive expected value is the art of understanding when a bet is more likely to happen than the odds the bookmaker has placed. If a bet has a positive expected value, then there’s a higher opportunity for bettors to break even and possibly make a profit in the long run due to the value of the bet being positive. Here at OddsMonkey, we will look at what expected value is, how we can find selections that have positive expected value, and how OddsMonkey can assist with this form of value betting.
What is Expected Value In Sports Betting
While we are discussing positive expected value, it is important for bettors to understand what expected value means and the difference between positive expected value and expected value. Expected Value (EV) is the representation of the average amount a bettor can anticipate making or losing over multiple bets placed at identical odds. It provides a long-term insight into the outcomes of betting decisions. Positive EV is when the value of the bet will overall be a positive outcome, meaning this bet would be a good option for you. As positive EV identifies opportunities where the actual chances of winning are better than what the odds reflect, they are extremely good choices for those who are looking to take part in value betting.
In sports betting, a positive EV suggests that the bettor can anticipate a profit over an extended period of time. This means that bettors should not expect an instant result when it comes to value betting, as unlike matched betting, bettors will not be able to guarantee results and might not see an instant return.
Positive EV plays a significant role in long-term gains and can be extremely handy in any bettors’ strategy. With a higher probability of success, bettors can gain a slight edge back from the bookmakers, making it an essential tactic instead of placing bets without a strategy.
If you would like to learn more about EV, we have our own detailed expected value guide, which is full of all the information you would need concerning EV.
How To Identify Positive Expected Value Bets
Whilst there is a formula to work out the expected value of a bet, bettors can also simply use their judgement if they understand the sport well enough to make their own expected value. With this technique not recommended for everyone, those who keep up to date with statistics, injury updates, and player form can make their own judgement on what bets are worth placing.
However, for those who want a more accurate way to calculate expected value, then there are a couple of steps you can follow to identify this:
- Combine the probability of success with the potential return using the betting odds
- Subtract the product of the probability of losing and the potential loss amount
If the result is negative, this suggests that the expected value is negative, and making this decision is not the best one, as it would result in a loss over time.
So, positive EV betting requires pinpointing bets where the probability of success exceeds the odds given by the bookmakers. One of the bonuses of this betting strategy is the fact that it can be used for all different types of sports, meaning any sports bettor can bet on their desired market, even niche markets such as Esports, which users can find out more about in our Esports betting guide.
Bettors can use all of these different tools and suggestions to make their own decisions on what events and sporting games they would like to take part in. By using all of these together, you should be able to expect to find positive EV bets, which can return you with a profit if you carry on with the process. Patience with this technique is essential, as not every bet will be in your favour.
Positive Expected Value Betting At OddsMonkey
Whilst OddsMonkey is the home of matched betting tips and betting guides, the site is also home to plenty of value betting tools, which can be incredibly helpful for those who are looking to place any value bets.
There are plenty of niche markets that bettors can target to make the most of their value bets. This is due to these types of markets having less attention from bookmakers, meaning they will not scrutinise the play as much. With this in mind, any fans of niche markets will be able to make the most of these and create some potentially rewarding positive expected value bets. OddsMonkey has plenty of different niche betting guides such as our cricket betting guide and our tennis betting guide.
